It may sound like something straight out of political fan fiction — Donald Trump and Barack Obama facing off in a presidential election. But according to a new poll, Americans already have opinions on who they’d choose if the two ever went head-to-head on a 2028 ballot.
Of course, such a matchup is impossible under the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment, which limits presidents to two terms. Still, that hasn’t stopped speculation, especially with Trump occasionally hinting at the idea of a third term and Obama remaining characteristically silent. The “what if” scenario has drawn plenty of attention from both supporters and skeptics.
Back in April, Trump was asked how he would feel about running against Obama in 2028. His response was enthusiastic: “I’d love that. That would be a good one. I’d like that,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. When pressed further, Trump added, “No people are asking me to run, and there’s a whole story about running for a third term. I don’t know. I never looked into it. They do say there’s a way you can do it, but I don’t know about that… I want to do a fantastic job. We have four years—it’s still close to four years.”
It wasn’t the first time Trump had suggested testing the limits of the presidency. Earlier this year, he told NBC News, “A lot of people want me to do it. But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go. You know, it’s very early in the administration.” With a grin, he added, “I like working. I’m not joking, but I’m not—it is far too early to think about it. There are methods [through] which you could do it.”
While the scenario remains hypothetical, Daily Mail and J.L. Partners decided to ask voters how they would cast their ballots if the matchup somehow happened. The poll surveyed 1,013 registered voters, and the results were striking: 52% said they would vote for Obama, while 41% would support Trump. Among Hispanic voters, 73% backed Obama, and 68% of Black voters said they would too. Obama was notably the only recent Democrat to beat Trump in these hypothetical matchups—when Hillary Clinton or Kamala Harris were included, Trump came out ahead.
Obama, who won the presidency in 2008 and again in 2012, and Trump, who secured victory in 2016, lost in 2020, and made a political comeback in 2024, have defined American politics for much of the 21st century. Though their paths have often overlapped, the two have never faced each other directly on a ballot—until now, at least, in the realm of public imagination and polling data.
Realistically, a Trump–Obama race could never happen without a major constitutional overhaul. Trump has teased the idea more than once, but changing the 22nd Amendment would require approval from two-thirds of Congress and ratification by at least 38 state legislatures—a near-impossible feat in today’s divided political landscape.
